Home  |  Top News  |  Most Popular  |  Video  |  Multimedia  |  News Feeds  |  Feedback
  Medicine  |  Nature & Earth  |  Biology  |  Technology & Engineering  |  Space & Planetary  |  Psychology  |  Physics & Chemistry  |  Economics  |  Archaeology
Top > Nature & Earth > UCLA Climate Study Predicts Dramatic… >
UCLA Climate Study Predicts Dramatic Loss in Local Snowfall

Published: June 14, 2013.
By University of California - Los Angeles
http://www.newsroom.ucla.edu

By midcentury, snowfall on Los Angeles–area mountains will be 30 to 40 percent less than it was at the end of the 20th century, according to a UCLA study released today and led by UCLA climate expert Alex Hall.

The projected snow loss, a result of climate change, could get even worse by the end of the 21st century, depending on how the world reacts. Sustained action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions could keep annual average snowfall levels steady after mid-century, but if emissions continue unabated, the study predicts that snowfall in Southern California mountains will be two-thirds less by the year 2100 than it was in the years leading up to 2000.

"Climate change has become inevitable, and we're going to lose a substantial amount of snow by midcentury," said Hall, a professor in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. "But our choices matter. By the end of the century, there will be stark differences in how much snowfall remains, depending on whether we begin to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions."

"This science is clear and compelling: Los Angeles must begin today to prepare for climate change," said Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. "We invested in this study and created the AdaptLA framework to craft innovative solutions and preserve our quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos."

Less snowfall in general and a complete loss of snow at some lower elevations doesn't just have implications for snow enthusiasts who enjoy skiing and sledding in the local mountains; it also could mean sizeable economic losses for snow-dependent businesses and communities. Less snow could also mean changes in the seasonal timing of local water resources, greater difficulty controlling floods, and damage to mountain and river ecosystems.

The impact to actual snow on the ground may be even greater because the researchers quantified snowfall but not snow melt, said Hall, whose previous research found the region will warm 4 to 5 degrees by midcentury. By then, researchers estimate, the snowpack could melt an average of 16 days sooner than it did in 2000. "We won't reach the 32-degree threshold for snow as often, so a greater percentage of precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, particularly at lower elevations," Hall said. "Increased flooding is possible from the more frequent rains, and springtime runoff from melting snowpack will happen sooner."

"As a California resident, I spend my winters snowboarding in mountains throughout our amazing state," said Jeremy Jones, founder of Protect Our Winters, an environmental nonprofit composed of winter sports enthusiasts. "It breaks my heart to see America's great natural resources harmed by climate change. We must, immediately, begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is no choice."

The UCLA study, "Mid- and End-of-Century Snowfall in the Los Angeles Region," is the most detailed research yet examining how climate change will affect snowfall in the Southern California mountains. The report was produced by UCLA with funding from the city of Los Angeles, and in partnership with the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. The complete report, maps and graphics are available online at C-CHANGE.LA/snowfall, including a password-protected media site.

The study examined snowfall in the San Gabriel Mountains, San Bernardino Mountains, San Emigdio/Tehachapi Mountains and San Jacinto Mountains. The research team scaled down low-resolution global climate models to create high-resolution models with data specific to towns such as Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear, Wrightwood and Idyllwild. Hall's team included UCLA researchers Fengpeng Sun and Scott Capps, graduate student Daniel Walton and research associate Katharine Davis Reich.

The researchers used baseline snowfall amounts from 1981 to 2000 and predicted snow amounts for midcentury (2041 to 2060) and the end of the century (2081 to 2100) under a "business as usual" scenario, in which greenhouse gas emissions increase unchecked, and a "mitigation" scenario, in which the world significantly reduces emissions. By the end of the century, the contrast between the scenarios would be dramatic. In the mitigation scenario, midcentury snow levels would be 31 percent lower than baseline, but would remain relatively steady at only 33 percent below baseline by the end of the century.

In the business-as-usual scenario, 42 percent of the snow is expected to disappear by mid-century before dwindling dramatically to a 67 percent loss of snow by the end of the century.

"The mountains won't receive nearly as much snow as they used to, and the snow they do get will not last as long," Hall said.


Show Reference »


Translate this page: Chinese French German Italian Japanese Korean Portuguese Russian Spanish


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the ScienceNewsline.
Related »

Climate 
9/16/10 
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: an International Perspective
By National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
The world will need to make substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions below current levels over the next few decades if the worst impacts of dangerous climate change are …
Greenhouse 
3/19/13 
Greenhouse Gas Policies Ignoring Gap in Household Incomes: University of Alberta Study
By University of Alberta
Government policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from consumers need to be fairer for household income levels, says a University of Alberta researcher. …
States 
8/3/10 
New State Surveys Affirm Americans' Support for Government Action on Climate Change
By Stanford University
Large majorities of the residents of Florida, Maine and Massachusetts believe the Earth has been getting warmer gradually over the last 100 years (81 percent, 78 percent and 84 …
Method 
4/2/14 
★★★★ 
Gauging the Impact of Tropical Forest Logging: Winrock Develops New Method for Quantifying Carbon Emissions
By Winrock International
ARLINGTON, Va. (April 2, 2014) — Researchers at Winrock International have developed a first-of-its-kind method for estimating carbon emissions from forest degradation caused by selective logging in tropical regions. …
Sequencing 
11/3/11 

Trillions Served: Massive, Complex Projects for DOE JGI 2012 Community Sequencing Program
By Joint Genome Institute
Time 
12/9/13 
★★ 
New Long-lived Greenhouse Gas Discovered by University of Toronto Chemistry Team
By University of Toronto
Scientists from U of T's Department of Chemistry have discovered a novel chemical lurking in the atmosphere that appears to be a long-lived greenhouse gas (LLGHG). The chemical – …
More » 

Most Popular - Nature »
ICE »
Science: There's Something Ancient in the Icebox
SPECIES »
Call for Alternative Identification Methods for Endangered Species
FOOD »
Food Shortages Could Be Most Critical World Issue by Mid-century
SEDIMENT »
Impact Glass Stores Biodata for Millions of Years
FOREST »
Five Anthropogenic Factors That Will Radically Alter Northern Forests in 50 Years
ScienceNewsline  |  About  |  Privacy Policy  |  Feedback  |  Mobile  |  Japanese
The selection and placement of stories are determined automatically by a computer program. All contents are copyright of their owners except U.S. Government works. U.S. Government works are assumed to be in the public domain unless otherwise noted. Everything else copyright ScienceNewsline.