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Predicting Burglary Patterns Through Math Modeling of Crime

Published: June 1, 2012.
By Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

Analyzing spatio-temporal patterns of urban crime using mathematical modeling can reveal hidden patterns in the process of criminal activity, and potentially help establish methods for prevention.

Mathematical modeling of crime in general, and burglaries in particular, is based on the "broken window effect" or repeat victimization sociological effect, which implies that houses in areas of past burglaries have a higher chance of being burglarized.

Using two discrete models, one modeling the attractiveness of individual houses to burglars and the other modeling burglar movement, the authors of the UCLA study developed a continuum model based on a system of parabolic differential equations.

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Burglaries, Model, House, Burglary, Attractiveness, Patterns, Hotspots, Ucla, Steve, Neighborhood, Mathematical, Houses, Higher, Group, Effect, Criminal, Cantrell, Authors, Areas, Agents, …

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